Thursday, February 19, 2009

Monrovia was Great!! I love LA



In the two pictures we have the highly participating audience in one picture
and in the second picture are my two guests (Center) Chris Shevlin from Chicago Title Company and on the far right is Paul Scheper of Harvard university.

I arrived in Monrovia the evening before (Monday the 16th) and enjoyed beautiful
Colorado Blvd. in Downtown Pasadena. I never realized how nice Pasadena is. I
would live in that area in a heartbeat.


A great crowd, Jery asked several great questions. Sarah 'Sally' was also very intelligent and had a lot to add.

Thank you everyone including the local YMCA that provided the room. They
are a strong local charity and we appreciate the opportunity to be a part
of the solution with them.

-Christopher Rockey

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Really Santa Claus? A Whole Three Weeks? Golly!

I have been saying 'The Change in the Political Climate will Help the Short Sale Process' Now we are seeing evidence of that. Now you know why REO agents are finally starting to come to my seminars. Those same REO agents have seen a dramatic reduction in their inventory and that shall continue.
Citigroup announced it will be halting foreclosures starting Feb. 12. The bank said it will uphold this commitment until U.S. President Barack Obama has finalized the details of his plan to modify mortgage loans to benefit U.S. residents at risk of losing their homes.


Minutes later, JPMorgan announced it will also put a moratorium on foreclosures for a three-week period, or until March 6. Morgan Stanley later made a similar statement.

Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis already announced a similar pledge earlier this week in a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee.

On Wednesday, CEOs from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon and State Street all faced harsh criticism from lawmakers for allowing the financial system to come crashing down in 2008.

All of the executives said they will do what they can to boost lending and stem foreclosures to aid the U.S. economic recovery.

I will let you in on a little secret. You put me in the same room as these guys and they get the ruler to their knuckles. There are three options in a distressed property situation and each of the named above MUST start to respect the market on these options.
#1 Loan Modification
#2 Short Refinance (TIME Magazines top 50 best inventions of 2008)
#3 Short Sale

I am making a living on teaching and training Real Estate professionals how to successfully complete the Short Sale process. It's no secret I manage a securitized Hedge Fund as well but I enjoy my full time job. If Scott Thompson the founder of my company gets that appointment in Washington DC that Fidelity National Financial is trying to set up, it will be a good day for Real Estate agents. I promise to let you in on every little detail these lenders give us. Starting with Ken Lewis and how he has no right asking the government for money when he is just coming after the Recourse debt he maintains in Short Sale.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

I'm Moving to Brentwood


People ask me all the time why I love my job. I just smile and think about days like Brentwood this last Wednesday February 12Th. You know that I was one of only two males in the room. The funny thing is that in the above photo Paulette wasn't looking at the camera and Jerry who took the picture is her husband. He was the other male in the room. Sorry Jerry but you're married. I received a very nice thank you letter from Kathy N. I will tell everyone the same thing. This seminar was so much fun. We had great questions, we had great participation and the guest speakers were awesome as well!

Now you see why I say I'm moving to Brentwood. Well I would like to anyway.

-Christopher Rockey

You Think the Market is Cold try the Inland Empire



Scott Thompson the founder of our company once told me there is nothing worse on a professional level than being late to our seminars. Sacramento to San Jose is a two hour drive. Our seminar starts at 9:00 so we should leave by 7:00. If you include traffic you should really leave by 6:00. Sure Bay area traffic can get bad so let's say a full freeway bad traffic 27 accidents we should leave by 5:00. Not us! When we drive to and from San Jose in a single day it's a long tiring day. We meet at Starbucks in Natomas area at 4:00 in the morning and get to San Jose by 6:15. Remember we don't start until 9:00. My point is that I have not once ever been late because of this obsessive behavior (Except once in San Jose when my airplane broke and I was stranded in San Louis Obispo but that was out of my control) I was asked to be in San Bernardino the morning of February 10Th for an hour and a half free workshop. I arrived early due to my intense (OCD Even) training with Scott Thompson.
Had I paid closer attention I would have realized how early I was. I was absolutley
ecstatic to see the door open right on time (Perhaps even early) I called Scott that morning while I was standing outside and thanked him for his punctuality issues.

The good news is I met a lovely assistant named Madisson. She helped me pass out booklets and she was a beautiful five year old girl who's smile lit up the room.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Read Here for GREAT NEWS!!

I just saved money on my car insurance.

Now the bad news:
I'm very sorry about that because London's Financial Times says we ain't seen nothing yet. With a bit of an accent though.

According to an article written last week by Eric Uhlfelder, Credit Suisse maintains that about $1 trillion in Alt-A and option payment mortgages are scheduled to have rate resets in the next 30 months. These resets, the bank says, could cause as much future damage as the subprime crisis has already inflicted.

If these resets and the resulting increased monthly payments send defaults soaring, and given other factors such as job losses and falling home prices there is every indication they will, the bank projects that foreclosures over the next four years could reach nine million or 18 percent of all mortgages.

The newspaper estimates that there are approximately three million Alt-A loans outstanding with a value of $1 trillion. Fannie Mae, which owns or guarantees about 30 percent of them has called them loans with a higher risk of default than non-Alt-A loans.

Once again over the last several months I have published post after post about the size of the market to the point where people actually call me Dr. Doom which I am not. I believe the change in the political climate will induce recovery. We just don't know how yet.

-Christopher Rockey

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Simple Monetary Facts

Everyone uses money. We all want it, work for it and think about it. If you don't know what money is, you are not like most humans. However, the task of defining what money is, where it comes from and what it's worth belongs to those who dedicate themselves to the discipline of economics. While the creation and growth of money seems somewhat intangible, money is the way we get the things we need and want. Here I will attempt to explain the multifaceted characteristics of money.

What Is Money?
Before the development of a medium of exchange, people would barter to obtain the goods and services they needed. This is basically how it worked: two individuals each possessing a commodity the other wanted or needed would enter into an agreement to trade their goods.

This early form of barter, however, does not provide the transferability and divisibility that makes trading efficient. For instance, if you have cows but need bananas, you must find someone who not only has bananas but also the desire for meat. What if you find someone who has the need for meat but no bananas and can only offer you bunnies? To get your meat, he or she must find someone who has bananas and wants bunnies. Am I over explaining?

The lack of transferability of bartering for goods, as you can see, is tiring, confusing and inefficient. But that is not where the problems end: even if you find someone with whom to trade meat for bananas, you may not think a bunch of them is worth a whole cow. You would then have to devise a way to divide your cow (a messy business) and determine how many bananas you are willing to take for certain parts of your cow.

To solve these problems came commodity money, which is a kind of currency based on the value of an underlying commodity. Colonialists, for example, used beaver pelts and dried corn as currency for transactions. These kinds of commodities were chosen for a number of reasons. They were widely desired and therefore valuable, but they were also durable, portable and easily stored. Interestingly these pelts were good to satisfy all debts public and private. Sound familiar?

Another example of commodity money is the U.S. currency before 1971, which was backed by gold. Foreign governments were able to take their U.S. currency and exchange it for gold with the U.S. Federal Reserve. If we think about this relationship between money and gold, we can gain some insight into how money gains its value: like the beaver pelts and dried corn, gold is valuable purely because people want it. I’m not going to go into the economic philosophy of having a natural desire for a single person for self exploitation. Hugh Heffner has standardized that market.

It is not necessarily useful - after all, you can't eat it, and it won't keep you warm at night, but the majority of people think it is beautiful, and they know others think it is beautiful. Gold is something you can safely believe is valuable. Before 1971, gold therefore served as a physical token of what is valuable based on people's perception.

Impressions Create Everything
The second type of money is fiat money, which does away with the need to represent a physical commodity and takes on its worth the same way gold did: by means of people's perception and faith. Fiat money was introduced because gold is a scarce resource and economies growing quickly couldn't always mine enough gold to back their money requirement. For a booming economy, the need for gold to give money value is extremely inefficient, especially when, as we already established, value is really created through people's perception.

Fiat money, then becomes the token of people's apprehension of worth - the basis for why money is created. An economy that is growing is apparently doing a good job of producing other things that are valuable to itself and to other economies. Generally, the stronger the economy, the stronger its money will be perceived (and sought after) and vice versa. But, remember, this perception, although abstract, must somehow be backed by how well the economy can produce concrete products and services that people want. Including the potential for exporting recession.

That is why simply printing new money will not create wealth for a country. Money is created by a kind of a perpetual interaction between concrete things, our intangible desire for them, and our abstract faith in what has value: money is valuable because we want it, but we want it only because it can get us a desired product or service.

How Is It Measured?
Sure, money is the $10 bill you lent to your friend the other day and don't expect back anytime soon. But exactly how much money is out there and what forms does it take? Economists and investors ask this question everyday to see whether there is inflation or deflation. To make money more discernible for measurement purposes, they have separated it into three categories:

M1 – This category of money includes all physical denominations of coins and currency, demand deposits, which are checking accounts and NOW accounts, and travelers' checks. This category of money is the narrowest of the three and can be better visualized as the money used to make payments.

M2 – With broader criteria, this category adds all the money found in M1 to all time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds. This category represents money that can be readily transferred into cash.

M3 – The broadest class of money, M3 combines all money found in the M2 definition and adds to it all large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets.

By adding these three categories together, we arrive at a country's money supply, or total amount of money within an economy.

How Money Is Created
Now that I have discussed why and how money, a representation of perceived value, is created in the economy, we need to touch on how the central bank (the Federal Reserve in the U.S.) can manipulate the money supply.
Among other things, a central bank has the ability to influence the level of a country's money supply. Let's look at a simplified example of how this is done. If it wants to increase the amount of money in circulation, the central bank can, of course, simply print it, but as we learned, the physical bills are only a small part of the money supply.

Another way for the central bank to increase the money supply is to buy government fixed income in the market. When the central bank buys these government securities, it puts money in the hands of the public. How does a central bank such as the Federal Reserve pay for this? As strange as it sounds, they simply create the money out of thin air and transfer it to those people selling the securities! To shrink the money supply, the central bank does the opposite and sells government securities. The money with which the buyer pays the central bank is essentially taken out of circulation. Keep in mind that we are generalizing in this example to keep things simple.

Conclusion
Remember, as long as people have faith in the currency, a central bank can issue more of it. But if the Fed issues too much money, the value will go down, as with anything that has a higher supply than demand. So even though technically it can create money "out of thin air," the central bank cannot simply print money as it wants. At least that’s what they would have you believe. Uncle Ben (Bernanke) is an expert on the ‘Great Depression.’ He has publicly stated that he will print his way out of recession. In this electronic age you no longer even have to print money. You simply enter a monetary value in an account then push enter. Not only is there not enough gold to cover our currency but now for the first time there is not even enough currency to cover our electronic deposits. Ben Bernanke has recently been called ‘Helicopter Ben’ because of his intension to just throw the money into the economy. I have always said Bank of America will make it through this. I am not a prophet of doom but I can say for the first time ever I do feel economically unsafe. I will finish this article by stating what I believe to be 100% categorically the truth “You cannot save your way through recession, you MUST invest your way through.”
-Christopher Rockey

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Market Update:

A friend of mine recently told me that he wanted a new loan but didn't want to pay any points. That's great you can positively do that. But if he's refinancing into a 30 year fixed rate with interest rates at an extreme all time low why not consider it? Talk to your CPA, you should be able to get a write off on loan fees. I saw the following article and thought you might be interested:

Paying up-front points. Borrowers can pay points - one-time, up-front fees - in order to reduce their mortgage's interest rate over the life of the loan. One point represents 1% of the mortgage value.

But they often assume that they should never pay points, according to Alan Rosenbaum, founder of mortgage broker Guardhill Financial. That's a mistake, in his opinion.

When interest rates were high, paying points didn't make sense because borrowers were very likely to refinance after rates dropped. They wouldn't hold their original loans long enough to recoup their up-front costs.

But now borrowers can get a lot more bang for their buck. The old rule of thumb was that paying one point at closing could lower their mortgage's interest rate by a quarter percentage point or so.

"Today the spread is worth a half point to a full point on the rate," said Rosenbaum.

It means paying $2,000 on a $200,000 mortgage at closing can shave as much as a whole percentage point off the loan's interest rate, changing a 6% loan to 5%.

That would save $126 a month, and pay for itself in 16 months. Even if the rate were only lowered to 5.5%, that would still save $64 a month, paying for itself in 32 months.

Still, not everyone is convinced. Rosenbaum recently had a client who chose a 15-year fixed rate loan at 5.875% with zero up-front points on a $800,000 loan, instead of paying a point to get a 5.375% loan.

Had the borrower chosen to pay that point, he would have recouped that cost in about three years, and then gone on to save more than $200 a month for the remaining 12 years of the loan.

Of course, there are caveats. Buyers who are planning to refinance or sell within a few years shouldn't pay points, since the strategy simply doesn't pay in the short term.

Making more than the minimum down payment. If you can afford to put 25%, 30% or more down, should you do it?

Most lenders require a minimum down payment of 20%; anything less and borrowers will need to obtain private mortgage insurance.

And if a buyer could afford to put more than 20% down, it was generally assumed that they should.

The traditional thinking was, "If you have the capital to commit, why not?" said Keith Gumbinger of mortgage research firm HSH Associates. "It will give you a smaller balance to pay off. But now, in light of declining home markets, not everyone would agree with that."

High down payments can be wiped out in severely declining markets.

Nicholas said he knows of a couple in Arizona who put a whopping $400,000 down on a million dollar house a couple of years ago. That gave them, they thought, a nice home equity cushion should they run into financial trouble.

"But prices are down so much, the couple still fell underwater," he said. "It would have been better to conserve that cash in case home prices continue to decline."

Locking in the mortgage rate. Many borrowers choose not to lock in when rates are falling, as they have been, since they assume that the deals will only get better.

But that's often a mistake.

"We almost always recommend that if you have the numbers that make your deal work, then lock it in," said Gumbinger.

His reason: Interest rates tend to jump up much faster than they inch down, meaning that buyers are much more likely to get stuck with a higher mortgage rate than they are to get lower one because they waited.

Besides, locking in at the currently very affordable rates can give borrowers peace of mind, which is no small matter when you're trying to buy a house.

"You'll sleep better at night,"

No There are Two Brentwood's in California


I was anxious to go to Brentwood until I found out it was in Northern California. Northern California Brentwood would be a small speck on the map if it wasn't the foreclosure capitol of the bay area's elite Contra Costa County. I use the word 'Elite' respectfully to San Mateo, Marin and San Francisco counties. I had the chance to do a couple of meetings in Brentwood on my way home from LA. I had an extremly participating crowd featured above. I look forward to being back on the 12th of February. Of course I will always be partial to San Jose where I grew up. I didn't bother taking any pictures there yesterday. But I can tell you, I have no idea why I love San Jose based on yesterday's crowd. Seriously yesterday morning there were over 100 people in the room ALL sleeping. Bad instructor I guess?

Bank of the American People


People often say I am making a career by being a profit of doom. I never even said
Bank of America could go away. I honestly thought they would make it throught this. Was it possible I was wrong? Sure I guess? Don't be surprised when more bailout money goes missing and silent B of A suddenly reports earnings. I had the opportunity to host a cocktail party in Phoenix/ Mesa last week. I look forward to being back on the week of the 23rd.